The three South African teams that won their penultimate league games all had something to feel positive about but it was arguably the final game of a pulsating weekend of action in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship that set the benchmark.
While the Emirates Lions were right to feel euphoric after their brilliant win over previous log leaders Glasgow Warriors, the Vodacom Bulls should be satisfied with the impact of their power game and the DHL Stormers should be co*ck-a-hoop after winning in Galway, the Irish derby between Ulster and Leinster at the Kingspan Stadium sent out a warning on several levels.
đđđčđč đđ¶đșđČ: Emirates Lions 44 â 21 Glasgow Warriors
â Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) May 18, 2024
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One of those warnings was to Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus and his players ahead of the fast approaching series between the top two teams on the World Rugby rankings on South African soil in July. Ireland already made their statement in the recent Guinness Six Nations but as the URC rushes to a conclusion so the performances of their provincial teams are proving that Irish rugby is in rude health across the board.
With Saturdayâs massive Investec Champions Cup final against Toulouse uppermost in their minds, Leinster did not go to Belfast with a full strength team. They were some way off full muster. But that didnât detract from the quality of the game we were witness to, with everything happening at a frenetic tempo but also showing off a high skill level and sublime quality.
It wouldnât be stretching it to suggest the game was close to top international level and Ulster, who showed signs of a turnaround coming after the sacking of their previous coach when they dominated the Stormers in the first half of their game in Cape Town, look like they are returning to the form that saw them finish in the top three in the first two seasons of the URC.
âšNIENABERâS DEFENCE MADE GAME CLOSER
They were unlucky not to go ahead early in the game and Leinster probably have former Springbok World Cup winning coach Jacques Nienaberâs defensive system to thank for the fact that Ulster had to rely on a last gasp long-range penalty from man of the match John Cooney to win it.
Ulster looked out of it when despite all their early dominance they went eight points behind at a stage of the second half but an intercept try from Jacob Stockdale gave them an in and then came concerted and sustained pressure that eventually saw them home courtesy of that late pressure kick. It always looked likely it would require a kick, because the Nienaber inspired defensive system looked near impregnable even though Ulsterâs attacking game was sharp.
The result meant that Leinster lost a golden opportunity to return to their usual position at the top of the log following Glasgowâs slip against the Lions earlier in the day. Instead it is Munster, following their tight win away to Edinburgh on Friday night, who sit in pole position and that is where they will stay if they win what should be another cracking Irish derby against Ulster on the final weekend.
OSPREYS AND CONNACHT STILL HAVE THE SLIGHTEST GLIMMER
In keeping with the script of this 2023/2024 edition of the URC, it was a weekend that saw seismic change in the closely-fought battle between the top four teams, with Glasgow dropping from first to fourth, the Bulls lifting from fourth to second and Munster going from third to first. Leinster, with one game to play, are now outside of the top two.
Meanwhile the battle for the top eight spot that confirms playoff qualification saw just one casualty as the logjam from fifth place down remains in place, and even then you have to wonder whether that casualty, Connacht, who lost by four points to the Stormers, are really completely out of it.
Them and the 11th placed Ospreys are four points off the top eight, which is a sizeable gap with just one round to go. But if the teams ranked seventh to ninth and locked together on 49 points to the 45 of Connacht and the Ospreys donât win in the final round, they can be caught and even overtaken.
They are both playing away, however, with Connacht going to Leinster and the Ospreys to Cardiff, which is one of the reasons it is so unlikely and why Connacht are referred to as a casualty after they lost a game against the Stormers that they admitted beforehand was a point of no return clash for them.
A top seven finish will be necessary for Champions Cup qualification if the Hollywoodbets Sharks win the EPCR Challenge Cup final against Gloucester at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Friday night. If the Sharks do win it will guarantee South Africa three teams in the elite competition next year, and it could be four if a series of not completely results fall the Emirates Lionsâ way in the final round.
If the Lions pick up a bonus-point win over the Stormers in Cape Town on 1 June they will still finish behind the Cape team as they wonât have as many wins as the Stormers in the event of a tie (currently 11 wins against nine). But they will lift themselves ahead of the loser in the Benetton/Edinburgh derby, which will give them playoff qualification, and Champions Cup qualification will come their way if Ulster are denied any points in what could be a cracking Irish derby between Munster and Ulster in Limerick.
LIONS PROVE THEY ARE BEST 14-MAN TEAM
The Lionsâ win over Glasgow wasnât the first time this season that they have played astounding rugby, but it was the first time they have backed up, with this performance following their Goodwin over Cardiff the week before. It was also a case of lightning striking in the same place twice for them as they had to win while playing more than half the game with 14 men.
The previous time that happened was in Galway against Connacht earlier in the season, a performance which rivalled and maybe even surpassed the most recent win for quality. The Lions were ahead on the scoreboard but looked like they had a mountain to climb when Ruan Venter was sent off before halftime and that challenge became even stiffer when Francke Horn, the excellent Lions No 8, was binned shortly after Venter saw red.
However, shortly after the Warriors had reclaimed the lead a brilliant transition try completed by Edwill van der Merwe provided the spark that saw the Lions run in four tries in the space of nine minutes and completely change the game.
The Stormers, who will be the Lionsâ last league game opponents in Cape Town, will consider themselves warned that they are up against a team that can do exactly what they can do, which is change the whole complexion of a game in a matter of minutes with a flurry of tries.
That was something the Stormers did against the Dragons in their first tour win, but they had to rely on a different angle, namely their scrum and the kicking of Manie Libbok, to get them home in a tight struggle against Connacht. Games in Galway are seldom pretty and tend to be arm wrestles and with both defences dominating, that was the case again.
The win though should be a massive confidence booster for the Stormers as they now know they are consigned to travelling for the playoff rounds of the competition.
IRISH DERBY REMATCH POSSIBLE FOR KNOCKOUTS
How the cards are going to fall in terms of who plays who in the playoffs just adds further to the intrigue of what will be an absorbing final round.
As it stands, the Stormers (fifth) will have to go to the Scotstoun to play the Warriors (fourth), while Leinster and Ulster are now on a derby collision course. The Bulls will fancy their chances of beating Edinburgh in Pretoria if that is how it ends, with them second and Edinburgh seventh, which is one of two good reasons why the Bulls will be supremely motivated to round off their league campaign with a win against the Sharks.
The other reason is of course that a top two finish means they have home ground advantage in a semifinal should they get that far. But going to Hollywoodbets Kings Park wonât be an easy task for the Bulls and there are some other games on the final weekend that could see the log change significantly once more. If the Bulls lose and Leinster beat Connacht and Munster win against Ulster, it could be Irish teams in positions one and two.
BULLS POWER GAME TOPS BUT QUESTIONS OVER DEFENCE
The Bulls showed against Benetton that their power game remains unmatched in the URC, but there remain question marks over their defence, although defensive commitment once they are in a big lead in a game might be a more accurate way of putting it. Their defence when the scores are close is generally good, it is almost as if they just canât help themselves from taking the foot off the gas and becoming more passive once they feel the job is done.
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â Official Blue Bulls (@BlueBullsRugby) May 18, 2024
Obviously, as they learned in their most recent defeat to Munster, that is something that can bite them in the big games that await them as their strong challenge for what would be their first URC title heads towards its climax.
It would be churlish to focus too much on the Bulls' negatives though after another game where they went beyond the 50 mark and won by a big score. On the positive side they have several players in excellent form, not least of them ace try scorer Canan Moodie, while Johan Goosen does make a difference to their game when he is present.
David Kriel is gaining in reputation as a centre too, Willie le Roux showed some of the touches he is famous for, and Embrose Papier is in good form behind a dominant pack. Indeed, it is in that area, the pack, that the Bulls really hold their aces, with Elrigh Louw boasting outstanding stats and the angry warthog Akker van der Merwe in imperious try scoring form.
The Bulls players and the team as a whole though will need to be even better though if they are going to beat the top Irish teams and the same goes for the other South African contenders.
Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship results
Edinburgh 26 Munster 29
Zebre 18 Scarlets 32
Vodacom Bulls 56 Benetton 35
Emirates Lions 44 Glasgow Warriors 21
Hollywoodbets Sharks 14 Cardiff 36
Ospreys 26 Dragons 13
Connacht 12 DHL Stormers 16
Ulster 23 Leinster 21
Final round games (weekend 31 May/1 June)
Leinster v Connacht (31 May, 8:35pm)
Glasgow Warriors v Zebre (31 May, 8:35pm)
DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions (1 June, 1:45pm)
Benetton v Edinburgh (1 June, 2pm)
Scarlets v Dragons (1 June, 4pm)
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls (1 June, 4:10pm)
Munster v Ulster (1 June, 6:15pm)
âšCardiff v Ospreys (1 June, 6:30pm)
Top 10 positions with one round to go: Munster 63 points (12 wins), Vodacom Bulls 61 points (12 wins), Leinster 60 points (12 wins), Glasgow Warriors 60 points (12 wins), DHL Stormers 54 points (11 wins), Ulster 53 points (11 wins), Edinburgh 49 points (11 wins), Benetton 49 points (10 wins), Emirates Lions 49 points (9 wins), Connacht 45 points (9 wins).
